Good news has started to trickle in. Will take time to have an impact. Things likely to get much worse before they start to get better.
US Govt pretty aggressive in tacking the situation. UK Govt also likely to be proactive. Chinese govt. is on top of the inflation and growth slowdown in their country. Japan is in initial stages of slowdown, is sensitive to it but is yet to react.
This and some other other factors which are playing out lead me to believe that the economic cycle might start taking a U turn in the next 9-15 months timeframe.
In the next set of analysis, am planning to look at :-
- factors which are likely to drive the economic cycle around
- leading indicators of a turnaround in the economic cycle
- approximate timing of stock market reaction (historically markets
- Historically India and US stock markets have started recovering a couple of months before the economy recovery is underway. Will it happen again?