Friday, March 21, 2008

US Recession predicted by Prof Roubini in 2006

Prof Roubini had predicted the US recession way back in 2006. I came across this very recently.

"The Biggest Slump in US Housing in the Last 40 Years"…or 53 Years?

Check it out. It makes for a fascinating read...uncanny resemblance to how the economic scenario is playing out now.

He had  infact laid on in how the recession will play out in a twelve step approach, starting with falling housing prices.  In the next steps he lays down how the recession will spread to other sectors, including failure of financial organizations / hedge funds etc

Also check out The Economists' Forum at  Lots of thought provoking stuff in an easy style from some of world's greatest economists.

I am still absorbing lots of stuff in both these forums...!

Hope to share some of the insights from these and other forums as we go ahead

And I still hold that:-
  • we are following the US with a 6 months lag
  • Sensex likely to breach the 10K mark too in the next 18 months period.....and likely to go up to 40K (min 25K) by Sept 2013 and 80K (min 45K) by 2016.

As one of my readers said - lets wait and watch......