There are no changes in my estimates made almost a year back in March '08.
Key elements of my estimates :-
a) Interest rates will come down across board. Housing loan likely to go down to 7%, personal loans to 10%, Auto at 9%.Those were the levels just a few years back.
b) Increments / bonuses / job change increments will come down. labor market will get more fairly priced.
c) Real estate prices likely to correct more than 30% from current levels. “
India : From a slowdown to a recession and what it might imply
Key elements of my estimates :-
- “Sensex likely to go up to 40K (min 25K) by Sept 2013 and 80K (min 45K) by 2016. However before that , Sensex likely to breach the 10K mark too in the next 18 months period……Markets are harsh and unforgiving. But for those who can think (and hold stocks) for a 7 year range, they are one of the best investment options.
- “ Growth slowdown - GDP growth for 08-09 likely to be in 5% range.....
a) Interest rates will come down across board. Housing loan likely to go down to 7%, personal loans to 10%, Auto at 9%.Those were the levels just a few years back.
b) Increments / bonuses / job change increments will come down. labor market will get more fairly priced.
c) Real estate prices likely to correct more than 30% from current levels. “
India : From a slowdown to a recession and what it might imply
- “….UK housing continues to follow in US footsteps. No change in China and Japan growth numbers reduction. These are all major world economies and have a strong combined linkages across the globe. Are we in the middle of a truly global slowdown.?
....What will happen to the stock markets ? ….If we manage our investments right, we'll probably make more money than in any of the previous cycles. Some might be able retire early.”
Global Slowdown ? -the good ,the bad and the ugly
