Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Worst yet to come, but a great buying opportunity

Next one year will provide one of the best buying opportunities - the kind that come once in 7-10 years.

- Worst news, Domestic and globally is yet to come. US and India markets might go down as much as 20% from current levels. I won't be surprised even if it goes down more than that.

- US : A consumption driven economy - shows a 10% YOY decline in Dec`08 retail sales - that has a major impact on GDP. Next 2 quarters GDP likely to go down as much as negative 5 % and unemployment levels likely to cross 10% by end of this year. These are levels not seen for past many decades.

- India : Following US with 3-6 months lag. GDP might not go negative but we are likely to end 2009 in 5% range. However growth will take a severe hit and it will feel like a recession. Next 6 months will show consumption coming down, credit offtake coming down, big corporates closing down or showing losses, increased job losses and an increased fear and hopelessness

- Given my Sensex estimates at 60000- 80000 by 2016, this really is the year of the investor.